Polling guru floats the idea of Biden dropping out: At some point ‘continuing to run is a bigger risk’

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Election data guru and founder of “FiveThirtyEight” Nate Silver Monday suggested that President Biden’s latest disapproval ratings might be enough cause for the Democratic front-runner to drop out of the 2024 presidential election. 

“But Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don’t know. But it’s more than fair to ask,” Silver posted on Monday. 

He went on to state that Democrats would have been given a fighting chance if the 46th President of the United States had eliminated himself from the upcoming election earlier. 

“What’s clearer IMO is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” he wrote. 

Statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver speaks onstage at the ABC Leadership Breakfast panel during Advertising Week 2015 AWXII at the Bryant Park Grill on September 28, 2015 in New York City. (Slaven Vlasic/Getty Images for AWXII)

“If I’d told you 10 years ago a president would seek re-election at 81 despite a supermajority of Americans having concerns about his age, and then we’d hit 8% inflation for 2 years, you wouldn’t be surprised he was an underdog for reelection. You’d be surprised it was even close!,” he said. 

Responding to a critic who accused him of focusing too much on why Biden should drop out and not enough on former President Trump, Silver said he believed Trump should also bow out of the race.

“‘Trump should drop out too!’ is such [a] weird dunk on people who are pointing out that Biden has big challenges. Yes, Trump should drop out! I agree! Biden would lose by 7 points [against a different candidate], but I agree, the Republican Party and the country would be better served by a different nominee.” Silver wrote.

Biden and some of his top advisors reportedly don’t believe the bad poll numbers. 

According to a new Fox News Poll, Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Virginia, a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2024.  (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

According to a new Fox News Poll, Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Virginia, a state that Biden won by 10 points in 2024. 

The poll, released last Thursday, shows Biden and Trump with 48% each in a head-to-head matchup in the Old Dominion State.