Islamabad, Pakistan – When Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif removed Ahmed Ishaq Jahangir from his position as the chief of the country’s Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) on Wednesday, he became the highest-profile casualty in a sweeping organisational purge following the deaths of at least 43 Pakistanis off the coast of Morocco earlier in January.

The drowning incident came to light on January 15, when Moroccan authorities rescued 36 people after their boat was stranded in the Mediterranean Sea for 13 days. At least 37 others, including several Pakistanis, remain missing.

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Just four weeks before that, Greek authorities and merchant navy ships carried out four separate rescue missions near the Greek coast, saving at least 200 people, while close to 50 died, at least 40 of them Pakistanis.

These incidents have set off a rare crackdown by the Sharif-led government on officials who were tasked with stopping the human smuggling networks that lure Pakistanis from rural towns and villages with dreams of a life in Europe, and take them on dangerous, illegal migration routes that far too often end in death and tragedy in the waters of the Mediterranean.

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Before Jahangir’s removal, almost 50 FIA officials were dismissed for alleged negligence related to both the Greece and Morocco incidents. Additionally, the FIA said that more than 50 officials had been blacklisted from serving at any immigration checkpoints or anti-human trafficking units across the country, following a government inquiry, while several arrests were made targeting individuals who facilitated human smuggling networks.

These moves follow mounting criticism of the government for failing to dismantle human smuggling rackets and for its apparent inability to safeguard the lives of citizens who feel compelled to take risky journeys to Europe in breach of migration laws.

A senior government official, who is part of the task force formed by Sharif, said the prime minister was now keenly supervising the government’s response.

“The premier is taking these incidents very seriously. He realises the implications and reputational damage to the country, as well as the tragedy that afflicts the families of those who die or get stuck in far-off countries,” the official told Al Jazeera, requesting anonymity.

“We have improved not only our border screening but are also focusing on enforcement and prosecution. Now, smuggling someone out of Pakistan is going to be a daunting task,” the official claimed.

A long history of migration

This is easier said than done, as the recent deaths off Morocco – despite the Sharif administration’s ongoing crackdown – show.

Pakistanis seeking to migrate to European nations is not a new phenomenon. The trend began more than six decades ago, following the construction of Pakistan’s major hydroelectric project, the Mangla Dam.

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The initial wave of migrants consisted of those displaced by the dam’s construction. They were compensated by the Pakistani and British governments, allowing them to relocate to the United Kingdom.

Most came from Punjab, Pakistan’s most prosperous and populous province, particularly from cities such as Gujrat, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Mandi Bahauddin and Faisalabad.

A 2023 research report by the National Commission of Human Rights (NCHR), an autonomous state body accountable to parliament, revealed that the same districts that contribute heavily to legal migration also see some of the highest instances of undocumented migration.

“Among the top 20 districts contributing to 50 percent of the total labour outflows from Pakistan between 1981 and 2021, 13 are in Punjab, six in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and one in Sindh, specifically Karachi,” the report noted.

While central Punjab has experienced economic growth due to its fertile land and industrial expansion, migration from this region continued – often illegally – after European nations tightened their border controls at the turn of the century.

According to statistics from Frontex, the European Union’s border and coastguard agency, more than 150,000 Pakistanis have entered European countries using land and sea routes since 2009.

Land routes were more common in the 2010s when economic migrants from Pakistan would undertake perilous journeys on foot, sometimes walking for months. However, as crackdowns intensified, the routes evolved.

While the previous decade saw an influx of refugees into Europe from Afghanistan and Syria, two countries facing prolonged conflict, and from some African nations, Pakistan’s migration numbers remained relatively consistent, with an average of close to 10,000 undocumented Pakistanis entering Europe each year, according to Frontex.

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Following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, new migration routes emerged, making it harder for Pakistani authorities to detect undocumented travellers.

Nearly 300 Pakistanis were killed or declared missing in the June 2023 Adriana boat disaster in the Mediterranean. Families told Al Jazeera that their sons had flown from Pakistan to Dubai, then to Cairo, before making their way to Libya for a boat journey to Europe.

And if that route was long, the trip that Pakistanis who died off Morocco in January took was even more circuitous: from Pakistan to Dubai, then to Ethiopia, then Senegal, and finally, a road trip up the Atlantic Coast to Mauritania, where they began the boat ride.

Munir Masood Marath, a senior FIA official, explained that the operations of human smugglers, who manage vast networks across multiple countries, are not easy to stop because, on the surface, immigrants do not always come across as “illegal”: Their documents to travel out of Pakistan are legitimate, and officials have no sureshot way of knowing what they intend to do after landing in their first destination.

“People now travel on completely legitimate grounds. They have a valid passport, a valid visa, and a ticket. There is no reason to stop them at the airport,” he told Al Jazeera in a recent conversation at his office.

But the Adriana disaster was a major turning point, the government official on Sharif’s task force said.  The fishing trawler, carrying about 700 people, capsized off the Greek coast near Pylos. Only 104 people survived, including 12 Pakistanis.

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“After the 2023 incident, we took a hard look at our operations and began a massive crackdown. The results are now visible in the declining numbers of Pakistanis leaving the country,” he said.

The statistics appear to support this claim. According to FIA figures, about 19,000 people were stopped from leaving Pakistan in 2022, with most being intercepted on land routes.

By contrast, FIA’s Marath noted that, collectively, in 2023 and 2024, close to 70,000 people were stopped from leaving Pakistan. Frontex data also shows a nearly 50 percent decline in the number of Pakistanis reaching Europe in 2024, about 5,000 compared with 10,000 the year before.

Yet Marath, who recently returned from Morocco after investigating the latest tragedy, also acknowledged that smugglers were identifying and using new routes in a cat-and-mouse game with authorities.

That is why, he said, the government was now enhancing surveillance and detection mechanisms at the country’s key exit points.

“We profile travellers by looking at their travel history and social and educational background. If a person’s destination is Egypt, Ethiopia, or Senegal – African countries with minimal cultural or people-to-people ties with Pakistan – it raises alarm bells,” he explained.

The social drivers

Pakistan has consistently ranked among, or close to, the top 10 countries whose citizens have sought entry into Europe through irregular means over the last decade, according to Frontex.

While the past two years saw the country’s economy teetering on the brink of default, with inflation hitting 38 percent in mid-2023 and poverty rates reaching 39 percent, the government insists economic hardship is not the sole reason for migration.

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Officials argue that social pressures play a more significant role.

Marath, who himself hails from Mandi Bahauddin, a district from where irregular migration is common, said that family influence and peer pressure were the key drivers behind the dangerous journeys.

“In most cases, families themselves urge their members to find a way to reach Europe,” he said.

“It becomes a matter of competition. If a neighbour has two sons in Italy and has bought a car and renovated his house, others feel pressured to do the same, either by going themselves or sending their sons,” he added.

The recent Morocco incident involved people from relatively well-off families, including business owners and those with prior experience working in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Marath said that while Gulf nations, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are host to a large Pakistani diaspora working there, for many, their objective is to emulate their cousins who are in European countries.

“Going to Gulf countries is usually a backup plan. The dream is Europe. Having family or friends there makes settling in easier,” Marath explained.

A changing landscape

The recent crackdown on officials points to the government’s intent, the senior government official on Sharif’s task force suggested.

“There are obviously varying factors at play, but the key point is that we recognise them, and we are working to fix things,” the official said.

He added that thousands of Pakistanis remained stranded in Libya, and that the government was working towards their repatriation.

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“Libya is a challenge due to the lack of an organised government, with different factions controlling different areas. If those still there attempt to cross into Europe, bringing them back will be difficult,” he said. “But for others who try to leave Pakistan for this purpose, we are hopeful about cracking down on human smuggling.”

However, Marath, the FIA official, said that besides improving enforcement and training for the FIA staff, it was just as important to provide sensitisation and awareness to the people who put their lives at risk “knowingly”.

“People pay anywhere between 2.5 to 3.5 million rupees [$8,900 to $12,500] to smugglers. Why not use that money to build a future here instead of risking their lives?” he asked.